In this short article, Id like to analyze the feasibility of the net scores that are posted in "friendly" competitions. You know the scores I mean the ones that result in certain "lucky" golfer winning all the money again and again. A handicap is a funny thing. Everyone wants a low handicap after a round has been played and while refreshments are being consumed in the clubhouse. Hey, a falling handicap is proof that improvement is being made. But everyone wants a high handicap as they stand at the first tee negotiating the "arrangements" for the days competition. Thats right "negotiating". A handicap should NOT be an approximate value that is adjusted to suit the situation. A computer program should be used to compute an accurate value and negotiations should not be a part of the exercise. But Ill quit whining about sandbaggers just long enough to do some objective analysis of extremely "good" scores in the heat of competition. For evidence, I submit the following table compliments of the USGA. ODDS OF SHOOTING AN EXCEPTIONAL TOURNAMENT SCORE from the USGA Handicap Ranges 0-56-1213-2122-30GREATER THAN 30 Net Differentialoddsoddsoddsoddsodds 05:1 5:1 6:1 5:15:1 -110:1 10:1 10:1 8:17:1 -223:1 22:1 21:1 13:110:1 -357:1 51:1 43:1 23:115:1 -4151:1 121:1 87:1 40:122:1 -5379:1 276:1 174:1 72:135:1 -6790:1 536:1 323:1 130:160:1 -72349:1 1200:1 552:1 229:1101:1 -820111:1 4467:1 1138:1 382:1185:1 -948219:1 27877:1 3577:1 695:1359:1
What does this table really mean? Well, to begin, a players differential is the difference between the adjusted gross score and the course rating, multiplying the difference by 113 and dividing the resulting figure by the course slope. Sound complicated? I guess it is a bit, but for the purposes of a quick analysis and after removing all the jargon, it is pretty close to a players score less the course par. For example, a score of 92 on a par 72 course would be about 20, but after converting to an adjusted gross score, using a typical course rating and course slope, the value of 20 is more likely to be something like 18. The harder the course, the lower the actual differential. Now, the Net Differential used in the USGA table, is the difference between the differential just described and a players Handicap Index. The table shows just how likely it is that a golfer will score under his handicap in a competitive round of golf. And guess what? it isnt too likely! Handicaps are set up such that IT IS DIFFICULT FOR SOMEONE TO SHOOT TO HIS/HER HANDICAP. It should only happen once in every 5 or 6 rounds. Any player that accomplishes this feat should be very pleased with his/her performance. Lets deal with an example. The odds of a player with a Course Handicap of 14, beating the differential by eight strokes (that is, of shooting a net score of about 64 for a net differential of -8) once are 1,138 to 1. Put another way, the average player posts 21 scores a year. That means that to score this well, assuming the Handicap Index is correct, would take 54 years of golf to do it once. The odds of a player beating his Course Handicap by eight strokes twice are only 14,912 to 1. Thats 710 years of golf for the average player a bit of a stretch to say the least. Yet, scores like that are not uncommon for golfers who submit an approximate handicap. So, the next time you hear this "Hmm, I dont keep accurate records but I havent played much lately and the last time I did play I shot a 96 so just put me down for a 24 handicap" you should raise the red flag. When he posts his "career round", whip out the above table and advise him to buy several lottery tickets on his way home from the course because this is obviously his "lucky" day. |
